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Global climate change and aspects of regional climate change in the Berlin-Brandenburg region
(2011)
To obtain an estimate of the average temperature of the northern hemisphere during the last 1200 years, proxy data have been merged with instrumental recordings. These instrumental measurements are, with a few exceptions, only available for the recent 150 years. In the city of Berlin the temperature has been recorded since as early as 1701. However, during the first 150 years the measurements were problematic as location, measurement procedure and instruments changed frequently and without proper documentation. From 1847 onwards observations became more reliable once the Royal Prussian Meteorological Institute had been established. For the last 100 years temperature and precipitation measurements have been performed in parallel at Berlin-Dahlem and Potsdam. The datasets recorded in the city of Berlin and in Berlin-Dahlem have been merged to obtain a record of more than 300 years. It indicates that the temperature of Berlin has risen by 1.04°C during the last 100 years after correcting for the urbanisation effect. In the same period, the total number of frost days has significantly decreased by almost 17 days, and the number of summer days has significantly increased by about 12 days. Annual mean precipitation has hardly changed (decrease less than 0.2 %) during the last century. However, rainfall has decreased by about 4 % in summer and increased by 3 % in winter. All precipitation changes are below the 95 % ignificance level. Model projections indicate that warming will continue which means that Berlin-Brandenburg will experience a temperature rise of about 3-3.5°C by the end of this century for the IPCC scenario A1B. For the same scenario precipitation is expected to increase by 10-20 % in winter and to decrease by 10-30 % in summer: The seasonal precipitation changes compensate each other resulting in an almost unchanged annual mean.
Since humans are preferentially settling in flood plains they often influence freshwater systems intensely. The first signs of anthropogenic impacts on surface waters in the Berlin-Brandenburg region are approximately 3000 years old. Considering the multiple and intense human uses of surface waters in this region, we analysed when, how and to which extent regional rivers and streams became impacted by dams, water mills and fish weirs resulting in changes in morphology, hydrology and ecological functioning. We hypothesise that the development and growth of cities in this region necessitated (1) efficient navigability of rivers linking them, (2) efficient use of hydropower resources for mills, and (3) significant pollution of surface waters especially with the beginning of industrial development. We analyse these hypotheses by means of three regional examples and delineate the effects of human uses on selected surface water bodies. Understanding the effects of these historic modifications of surface water supports the identification of options for a sustainable use of surface waters that are currently still subjected to multiple uses but face a significant decrease in discharge due to climate change.
Global change is posing a major challenge to existing forms of natural resource use, socio-economic development and institutional regulation. Although trends such as climate change, socio-economic transformation and institutional change are global in their scope, they have very specific regional outcomes. Regionally distinct coping strategies are required which take into account both the diversity of regional impacts of global change and the local contexts of appropriate responses. This paper explores the impacts of global change on the management of water infrastructure systems in the Berlin-Brandenburg region in terms of three concurrent and overlapping challenges: climate change, socio-economic change and institutional change. It subsequently examines how regional actors in the water sector are addressing these three dimensions of global change.
The article informs about historical developments and recent problems in the former wetlands of the Oderbruch, which has been cultivated for agricultural use for 300 years, and in the fen region of the Rhin-Havel-Luch. The periodically inundated floodplains of Oderbruch are characterised by rich-in-clay sedimentation soils, while Rhin-Havel-Luch is a year-round wet fen region with peat soils. In both areas land use necessarily requires an adequate regional water management, employing measures and system solutions for river training, dike construction, drainage and soil cultivation. Options for action and adaptation strategies for the next 20 to 40 years, based on many years of own analyses and case studies, are presented and discussed. The article also considers an aggravation of the problems to be expected from climate change.